Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Calculate Match Importance: The Case of English Premier League

21 Pages Posted: 2 Sep 2012  

Jiri Lahvicka

University of Economics, Prague - Faculty of Economics and Public Administration

Date Written: September 1, 2012

Abstract

This paper presents a new method of calculating match importance (a common variable in sports attendance demand studies) using Monte Carlo simulation. Using betting odds and actual results of 12 seasons of English Premier League, it is shown that the presented method is based on realistic predictions of match results and season outcomes. The Monte Carlo method provides results closest to Jennett’s approach; however, it does not require ex-post information and can be used for any type of season outcome.

Keywords: sports attendance, match importance, seasonal uncertainty, Monte Carlo

JEL Classification: C53, D12, L83

Suggested Citation

Lahvicka, Jiri, Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Calculate Match Importance: The Case of English Premier League (September 1, 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2140024 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2140024

Jiri Lahvicka (Contact Author)

University of Economics, Prague - Faculty of Economics and Public Administration ( email )

nám. W. Churchilla 4
Praha, 130 67
Czech Republic

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