Spatial and Temporal Responses to an Emissions Trading System Covering Agriculture and Forestry: Simulation Results from New Zealand

27 Pages Posted: 7 Sep 2012

See all articles by Suzi Kerr

Suzi Kerr

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust

Simon Anastasiadis

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research

Alex Olssen

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust

William Power

GNS Science

Levente Timar

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust; GNS Science

Wei Zhang

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust

Date Written: September 6, 2012

Abstract

We perform simulations using the integrated Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model to analyze the effect of various New Zealand emissions trading scheme (ETS) scenarios on land-use, emissions, and output in a temporally and spatially explicit manner. We compare the impact of afforestation to the impact of other land-use change on net greenhouse gas emissions, and evaluate the importance of the forestry component of the ETS relative to the agricultural component. We also examine the effect of land-use change on the time profile of net emissions from the forestry sector. Our projections for the mid-2020s suggest that under a comprehensive ETS, sequestration associated with new planting could be significant; it may approach 20 percent of national inventory agricultural emissions in 2008. Most of this is driven by the reward for forestry rather than a liability for agricultural emissions. Finally, we present projections of future agricultural output under various policy scenarios.

Keywords: land use, land-use change, LURNZ, greenhouse-gas emissions, afforestation, forestry removals, New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme, integrated modelling, agricultural production

JEL Classification: Q15, Q18, Q23, Q54

Suggested Citation

Kerr, Suzi and Anastasiadis, Simon and Olssen, Alex and Power, William and Timar, Levente and Zhang, Wei, Spatial and Temporal Responses to an Emissions Trading System Covering Agriculture and Forestry: Simulation Results from New Zealand (September 6, 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2142289 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2142289

Suzi Kerr

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust ( email )

Level 1, 93 Cuba Street
P.O. Box 24390
Wellington, 6142
New Zealand
+64 4 383 4250 (Phone)
+64 4 383 4270 (Fax)

Simon Anastasiadis

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research ( email )

Level 1, 93 Cuba Street
P.O. Box 24390
Wellington, 6142
New Zealand

HOME PAGE: http://www.motu.org.nz

Alex Olssen

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust ( email )

Level 1, 93 Cuba Street
P.O. Box 24390
Wellington, 6142
New Zealand

William Power

GNS Science ( email )

1 Fairway Drive
Avalon, 5010
New Zealand

Levente Timar (Contact Author)

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust ( email )

Level 1, 93 Cuba Street
P.O. Box 24390
Wellington, 6142
New Zealand

GNS Science ( email )

1 Fairway Dr
Avalon
Lower Hutt
New Zealand

Wei Zhang

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust ( email )

Level 1, 93 Cuba Street
P.O. Box 24390
Wellington, 6142
New Zealand

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