Investment Plans and Stock Returns

Abstract

Capital expenditure plans at the beginning of the year, from a US government survey of firms, explain more than three quarters of the variation in real annual aggregate investment growth between 1948 and 1993. The negative correlation of contemporaneous investment and stock returns is explained by the negative correlation of planned investment and subsequent stock returns. Unexpected revisions to aggregate investment (actual minus plan) within a year are essentially unrelated to current stock returns, and positively related to current profits. Revisions to industry investment are positively related to industry-specific stock returns and to aggregate profits.