The Cost of a Revolution

Iran Nameh: A Quarterly Journal of Iranian Studies, Forthcoming

31 Pages Posted: 12 Sep 2012 Last revised: 16 Nov 2015

See all articles by Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar

Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Date Written: October 1, 2014

Abstract

I attempt to quantify the economic opportunity cost of 1979 Iranian revolution and the subsequent policies adopted by the Islamic Republic for the average Iranian citizen.Based on the difference between the actual outcomes of Iranian economy in 1979-2010 period against a set of carefully chosen counterfactuals, I construct a measure for cumulative opportunity cost/gain. Some of these counterfactual scenarios are based on the performance of the Iranian economy over the pre-revolution years, while others are based on the actual performance of economies of Iran’s regional neighbors. My results indicate a substantial opportunity cost in the form of loss in per capita real GDP ranging between 50% to 25% of annual income.

Keywords: Counterfactual analysis, Markov chain simulation, real per capita GDP, Iran, MENA region

JEL Classification: E17, F39, O11

Suggested Citation

Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R., The Cost of a Revolution (October 1, 2014). Iran Nameh: A Quarterly Journal of Iranian Studies, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2144857 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2144857

Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar (Contact Author)

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551
United States

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/site/mrjahan/

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