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Methodology of the Rand Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll

13 Pages Posted: 14 Sep 2012  

Arie Kapteyn

Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research - University of Southern California; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Erik Meijer

University of Southern California; RAND Corporation

Bas Weerman

RAND Corporation

Date Written: September 13, 2012

Abstract

The RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll (CPEP) is conducted within the American Life Panel, which is an internet panel recruited through traditional probability sampling to ensure representativeness. The CPEP differs from other polls in that it asks the same respondents repeatedly about their voting preferences. Thus, it leads to more stable outcomes and changes are due to individuals' changing their minds and not due to random sampling fluctuations. The CPEP is also different because it asks respondents to state their preferences for a candidate and the likelihood that they will vote in probabilistic terms (percent chance), which has been shown to improve forecasts several months before the election. This document gives a detailed account of the methodology underlying the CPEP.

JEL Classification: D72, D84, C83, C53

Suggested Citation

Kapteyn, Arie and Meijer, Erik and Weerman, Bas, Methodology of the Rand Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll (September 13, 2012). RAND Working Paper No. WR-961. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2146149 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2146149

Arie Kapteyn (Contact Author)

Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research - University of Southern California ( email )

635 Downey Way
Los Angeles, CA 90089-3332
United States
310-448-5383 (Phone)

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Erik Meijer

University of Southern California ( email )

635 Downey Way
Los Angeles, CA 90089-3332
United States

RAND Corporation ( email )

1776 Main Street
P.O. Box 2138
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
United States

Bas Weerman

RAND Corporation ( email )

1776 Main Street
P.O. Box 2138
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
United States

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