Long-Run Evaluation of Fertilization Strategies for Dryland Wheat in Northcentral Oregon: Simulation Analysis

Agricultural Systems, Vol. 18, pp. 133-153, 1985

21 Pages Posted: 17 Sep 2012 Last revised: 16 Feb 2016

See all articles by Thomas L. Nordblom

Thomas L. Nordblom

Graham Centre for Agricultural Innovation (Charles Sturt University & NSW DPI)

Awadelkarim Ahmed

University of Gezira

Stanley Miller

Oregon State University - Department of Applied Economics

D. Glenn

Government of the United States of America - Agricultural Research Service (ARS)

Date Written: 1985

Abstract

Farmers commonly apply fixed ‘blind' quantities of nitrogen fertilizer during the fallow or at seeding in rain fed winter wheat-fallow systems in Northcentral Oregon, an area characterized by high year-to-year variation in growing conditions. Knowing crop response to available N depends on growing conditions; some farmers apply additional N during the crop season in years of good rains. A simulation model was designed to estimate crop response functions for each fallow crop cycle in a sequence of 59 harvests, based on monthly precipitation and temperature records from 1917 to 1976 at Moro, Oregon. Five strategies, blind fallow applications (BF), blind seeding time applications (BS), calculated crop season applications (CC), and combinations (BF CC) and (BS CC), were each evaluated across this long sequence of years under three cost/price scenarios. Calculated applications, adjusted to particular growth and market conditions, resulted in highest average profits with the lowest coefficients of variation.

Keywords: economic, nitrogen, fertilizer, weather variation, information, integration, strategy, tactical options, dryland-farming, long-run simulation, decision support, blind, fallow, calculated crop season applications, price, cost, profit, risk

Suggested Citation

Nordblom, Thomas L. and Ahmed, Awadelkarim and Miller, Stanley and Glenn, D., Long-Run Evaluation of Fertilization Strategies for Dryland Wheat in Northcentral Oregon: Simulation Analysis (1985). Agricultural Systems, Vol. 18, pp. 133-153, 1985. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2147580

Thomas L. Nordblom (Contact Author)

Graham Centre for Agricultural Innovation (Charles Sturt University & NSW DPI) ( email )

Albert Pugsley Place
Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650
Australia
+61419290428 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.csu.edu.au/research/grahamcentre/our-people/members2/tom-nordblom

Awadelkarim Ahmed

University of Gezira

P.O. Box 20
Wadmedani
Sudan

Stanley Miller

Oregon State University - Department of Applied Economics

213 Ballard Extension Hall
Corvallis, OR 97331-4501
United States

D. Glenn

Government of the United States of America - Agricultural Research Service (ARS)

Jamie L. Whitten Building
1400 Independence Ave., S.W.
Washington, DC 20250
United States

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