Possible Space Weather Influence on the Earth Wheat Markets
Sun and Geosphere, 2009; 4(1): 35-43
9 Pages Posted: 20 Sep 2012
Date Written: September 18, 2009
We consider the problem of a possible influence of space weather on agricultural markets through the chain of relationships: “space weather” - “earth weather” - “agriculture crops” - “price reaction”. We show that the recently discovered manifestation of the “space weather” - “earth weather” relationship allows revision of a wide field of expected solar-terrestrial connections. In the earlier studies (Pustil’nik and Yom Din, 2004a, 2004b) we proposed a possible mechanism of the wheat market reaction in the form of price bursts on specific unfavorable states of space weather. We point out that the implementation of the considered price reaction scenarios is possible only in the case of a simultaneous realization of several necessary conditions: a high sensitivity of local earth weather in to space weather; a state of risky agriculture in the selected region; a high sensitivity of the agricultural market to a possible supply deficit. The above mentioned studies related to the Medieval England wheat market (1250-1700) and to the USA durum market (1910-1992) showed significant relationships between wheat price bursts and space weather states at a high confidence level. The present work aimed to examine the question why wheat markets in some regions are influenced by space weather while the same influence in another regions has not been revealed. For this purpose we study the wheat markets sensitivity to space weather as a function of their localization in Europe in different climatic zones. We analyze a database of 95 European wheat markets in 14 countries during the 650-year period (1260-1912). We show that the observed sensitivity of the wheat market to space weather is controlled mainly by the type of predominant climate in different zones of agriculture. Wheat markets in the North and in the part of the Central Europe (England, Iceland, and Holland) showed significant sensitivity to space weather in states of minimum solar activity when the excess of the high energy cosmic ray stimulate additional cloudiness and precipitation. At the same time, wheat markets in the South Europe (Spain, Italy) showed significant sensitivity to space weather in the opposite (maximum) phase of solar activity when a deficit of cosmic rays input into the atmosphere leads to the decreased cloudiness and to the increased probability of droughts. We discuss a possible increase of wheat markets sensitivity to space weather under conditions of the modern climate change caused by global warming of the Earth atmosphere when many agriculture regions move to the state of risky agriculture.
Keywords: solar activity, space weather, climate, market, price, wheat
JEL Classification: A12, N53
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation