New Keynesian Macroeconomics: Empirically Tested in the Case of Republic of Macedonia

International Journal of Economics, ISSN: 0973-6719, Forthcoming

25 Pages Posted: 20 Sep 2012 Last revised: 20 Feb 2014

See all articles by Dushko Josheski

Dushko Josheski

University Goce Delcev

Darko Lazarov

University Goce Delcev

Date Written: September 19, 2012

Abstract

In this paper we test New Keynesian propositions about inflation and unemployment trade off with the New Keynesian Phillips curve and the proposition of non-neutrality of money. The main conclusion is that there is limited evidence in line with the New-Keynesian theory. Money and growth are cointegrated series and that money growth influences the economics growth with one quarter lag. Cointegration means also that if the two series are cointegrated they have long run equilibrium. St.Louis model in the paper showed overall that increase in money growth leads to decrease in the economy growth. But the effect in the equation at three quarters lag is positive. The NAIRU rate in the unemployment inflation trade off model is almost similar as high to the actual unemployment. In the New Keynesian Phillips curve not surprisingly, there appears to be no statistically significant relationship between inflation and unemployment – even in the classical Philips curve and in adaptive expectations Philips curve by Modigliani-Papademos (1975). Or the Friedman-Phelps-Lucas expectations augmented one between the difference of actual and expected inflation rate and the gap between actual and the natural rate of unemployment presented in the next equation.

Keywords: New-Keynesian Macroeconomics, NAIRU, Money, Output Trade Off

JEL Classification: B22, B23

Suggested Citation

Josheski, Dushko and Lazarov, Darko, New Keynesian Macroeconomics: Empirically Tested in the Case of Republic of Macedonia (September 19, 2012). International Journal of Economics, ISSN: 0973-6719, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2148941 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2148941

Dushko Josheski (Contact Author)

University Goce Delcev ( email )

Stip
Macedonia
+389 32 550 000 (Phone)
+389 32 390 700 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ugd.edu.mk/

Darko Lazarov

University Goce Delcev ( email )

PO box 201
Stip, 2000
Macedonia
+389 550 317 (Phone)

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