Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis

31 Pages Posted: 5 May 2000 Last revised: 16 Oct 2010

See all articles by Jordi Galí

Jordi Galí

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Mark Gertler

New York University - Leonard N. Stern School of Business - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: February 2000

Abstract

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to set prices. The model nests the purely forward looking New Keynesian Phillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of arginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap. Real marginal costs are a significant and quantitatively important determinant of inflation. Backward looking price setting, while statistically significant, is not quantitatively important. Thus, we conclude that the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good first approximation to the dynamics of inflation.

Suggested Citation

Gali, Jordi and Gertler, Mark, Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis (February 2000). NBER Working Paper No. w7551. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=214974

Jordi Gali (Contact Author)

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI) ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas, 25-27
Barcelona, 08005
Spain
+34 93 542 2754 (Phone)
+34 93 542 1746 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.econ.upf.es/~gali

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics ( email )

50 Memorial Drive
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Mark Gertler

New York University - Leonard N. Stern School of Business - Department of Economics ( email )

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New York, NY 10003
United States
212-998-8931 (Phone)
212-995-4186 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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