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Timing Foreign Exchange Markets

44 Pages Posted: 2 Oct 2012 Last revised: 14 Apr 2014

Samuel W. Malone

University of the Andes

Robert B. Gramacy

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business

Enrique ter Horst

Colegio de Estudios Superiores de Administracion

Date Written: April 11, 2014

Abstract

We take a novel approach to short-horizon exchange rate forecasting by using priced, predictable, and traded foreign exchange market factors as fundamentals. Conditional linear and Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP) models with perfect foresight of these carry and dollar factors substantially outperform the random walk with respect to both squared error and profitability-related loss functions for most currencies. These results are driven primarily by information in the dollar factor. For factor timing strategies that exploit factor predictability directly, Sharpe ratios for the carry factor timing strategy are over three times those earned by timing the dollar factor, however. Simple trading strategies based on combining ex ante factor forecasts with rolling BTGP factor models for individual currencies outperform the random walk on directional accuracy, market timing, profitability, and Sharpe ratio measures for the median currency in our worldwide sample.

Keywords: foreign exchange, speculation, Bayesian treed Gaussian process, Anatolyev-Gerko statistic

JEL Classification: F31, G15, G17

Suggested Citation

Malone, Samuel W. and Gramacy, Robert B. and ter Horst, Enrique, Timing Foreign Exchange Markets (April 11, 2014). Midwest Finance Association 2013 Annual Meeting Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2154035 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2154035

Samuel W. Malone (Contact Author)

University of the Andes ( email )

Carrera Primera # 18A-12
D.C. 110311
Colombia

Robert B. Gramacy

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Enrique ter Horst

Colegio de Estudios Superiores de Administracion ( email )

Cra 6 # 34-51
Bogota, 00000
Colombia

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