Global Financial Crisis and Decoupling Hypothesis

11 Pages Posted: 30 Sep 2012

See all articles by Joanna M. Wyrobek

Joanna M. Wyrobek

Cracow University of Economics

Zbigniew Stanczyk

Cracow University of Economics

Date Written: September 29, 2012

Abstract

The purpose of the paper was to present the decoupling hypothesis which says that the performance of the emerging economies becomes relatively independent from the changes in advanced economies, and to empirically verify this hypothesis. The Christiano-Fitzgerald band-pass filter and spectral analyses have been applied to examine the hypothesis. On the basis of obtained results, if one compares the deviations of GDPs from their long-term trend, it seems that the synchronization of cycles between emerging and advanced economies was already high before the crisis. The last global crisis, especially if time shifts between the countries are taken into account, even increased the synchronization of the economies. Therefore, this paper presents evidence against the decoupling hypothesis, and at the same time it raises doubts whether the high rates of growth in emerging economies can be sustainable in the presence of the slow-down in the advanced economies.

Keywords: business cycle, Poland, decoupling, recoupling

JEL Classification: F44, C32, O1

Suggested Citation

Wyrobek, Joanna M. and Stanczyk, Zbigniew, Global Financial Crisis and Decoupling Hypothesis (September 29, 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2154253 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2154253

Joanna M. Wyrobek (Contact Author)

Cracow University of Economics ( email )

ul. Rakowicka 27
31 510 Krakow, 31-510
Poland
0048508437766 (Phone)
0048126437051 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.wyrobekj.ae.krakow.pl

Zbigniew Stanczyk

Cracow University of Economics ( email )

ul. Rakowicka 27
Krakow, 31-510
Poland

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