Assessing the Difference between Shock Sharing and Demand Sharing Insupply Chains

48 Pages Posted: 5 Oct 2012

See all articles by Vladimir Kovtun

Vladimir Kovtun

Independent

Avi Giloni

Independent

Clifford M. Hurvich

Stern School of Business, New York University; New York University (NYU) - Department of Information, Operations, and Management Sciences

Date Written: October 2012

Abstract

We consider the problem of assessing value of demand sharing in a multi-stage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the lead time demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order-up-to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information under demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for atypical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which(i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing,its demand, or its full-information shocks with an adjacent upstream player as quasi-ARMA in - quasi-ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications.

Keywords: Supply Chain Management, Information Sharing, Time Series, ARMA, Invertibility, QUARMA, Demand Sharing, Shock Sharing, Full InformationShocks, Order-up-to policy

Suggested Citation

Kovtun, Vladimir and Giloni, Avi and Hurvich, Clifford M., Assessing the Difference between Shock Sharing and Demand Sharing Insupply Chains (October 2012). NYU Working Paper No. SOR-2012-03. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2157339

Vladimir Kovtun (Contact Author)

Independent

No Address Available

Avi Giloni

Independent

No Address Available

Clifford M. Hurvich

Stern School of Business, New York University ( email )

44 West 4th Street
New York, NY 10012-1126
United States

New York University (NYU) - Department of Information, Operations, and Management Sciences

44 West Fourth Street
New York, NY 10012
United States

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