74 Pages Posted: 15 Oct 2012 Last revised: 26 Oct 2012
Date Written: October 15, 2012
I show that long-run risk - highly persistent variation in expected consumption growth - arises endogenously in a production economy with nominal frictions. The `long-run' part comes from price stickiness. Nominal frictions in the model generate a consumption growth process that shows low persistence unconditionally, but has a highly persistent conditional mean. The `risk' part comes from Epstein-Zin preferences, which result in a large risk premium being associated with variation in the conditional mean. The model provides new testable implications for long-run-risk models, and restricts the joint distribution of consumption and nominal equity and bond risk premia. A calibrated version of the model generates consumption, a risk-free interest rate, and equity risk premium behavior that are consistent with U.S. data.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Gavazzoni, Federico, Nominal Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Long-Run Risk (October 15, 2012). INSEAD Working Paper No. 2012/97/FIN. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2161809 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2161809
By Maxim Ulrich