Estimating the Effect of Perceived Risk of Crime on Social Trust in the Presence of Endogeneity Bias

Social Indicators Research, Vol. 114(2), pp. 523-547

43 Pages Posted: 18 Oct 2012 Last revised: 26 Apr 2016

See all articles by Luca Zanin

Luca Zanin

Prometeia

Rosalba Radice

University of Bath

Giampiero Marra

University College London

Date Written: October 18, 2012

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the effect of perceived risk of crime on the social trust probability for Italian men and women, accounting for both observed and unobserved confounding. We use microdata collected by the Italian National Statistical Office for the year 2010 during a multi-scope survey of Italian households. The relationship under investigation is estimated after controlling for observed confounding by using a propensity score weighting approach. To control for both observed and unobserved confounding (better known as endogeneity), a semiparametric recursive bivariate probit approach is ultimately employed instead. Our findings show that the perceived risk of crime has a significant negative effect on the social trust probability regardless of gender and that endogeneity seems to be present for both genders. The paper represents the first such application in which the effect of interest is estimated accounting for the presence of endogeneity.

Keywords: average treatment effect on the treated, endogeneity, confounding, perceived risk of crime, propensity score weighting, semiparametric recursive bivariate probit, social trust

JEL Classification: C14, C35

Suggested Citation

Zanin, Luca and Radice, Rosalba and Marra, Giampiero, Estimating the Effect of Perceived Risk of Crime on Social Trust in the Presence of Endogeneity Bias (October 18, 2012). Social Indicators Research, Vol. 114(2), pp. 523-547, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2163416

Rosalba Radice

University of Bath ( email )

Claverton Down
Bath, BA2 7AY
United Kingdom

Giampiero Marra

University College London ( email )

Gower Street
London, WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom

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