Economic Leadership and Growth

Abstract

Economies governed by former economics students grow faster than economies governed by leaders with other education backgrounds; a result which is most evident for presidents. Faster growth (average growth) occurs during an economic leader’s first year (entire tenure), primarily through investment. When focusing on close elections which “quasi-randomize” economic leadership, I find a large effect that is robust controlling for a leader’s advanced education. Investors seem to hasten their activity in anticipation of their economic leader’s eventual reduction of the top personal income-tax rate. Overall, the findings suggest that economic leaders improve short-term growth through the anticipation of policy changes.

Keywords: Government Leadership, Economics Education, Economic Growth, Policy Anticipation, Government Finance, Tax Cuts

JEL Classification: A20, E32, H11, H24, H30, O23