Kondratieff Waves in the World System Perspective

Kondratieff Waves, Dimensions and Prospects at the Dawn of the 21st Century, ISSN: 2305-3461. Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2012

42 Pages Posted: 3 Nov 2012

See all articles by Leonid Grinin

Leonid Grinin

National Research University Higher School of Economics; Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting; Volgograd Center for Social Research

Date Written: October 15, 2012

Abstract

The analysis of long economic cycles allows us to understand long-term world-system dynamics, to develop forecasts, to explain crises of the past, as well as the current global economic crisis. The article offers an historical sketch of re-search on K-waves; it analyzes the nature of Kondratieff waves that are considered as a special form of cyclical dynamics that emerged in the industrial period of the World System history. It offers a historical and theoretical analysis of K-wave dynamics in the World System framework; in particular, it studies the influence of the long wave dynamics on the changes of the world GDP growth rates during the last two centuries. Special attention is paid to the interaction between Kondratieff waves and Juglar cycles. The article is based on substantial statistical data, it extensively employs quantitative analysis, contains numerous tables and diagrams. On the basis of the proposed analysis it offers some forecasts of the world economic development in the next two decades.

The article concludes with a section that presents a hypothesis that the change of K-wave upswing and downswing phases correlates significantly with the phases of fluctuations in the relationships between the World System Core and Periphery, as well as with the World System Core changes.

Keywords: cyclical dynamics, Juglar cycles, Kondratieff waves, K-waves, World System, long waves, phases of long waves, world economic, Nikolay Kondratieff, world GDP, technological innovation, core and periphery, leading sector, technological system, technological style

JEL Classification: B22, B23

Suggested Citation

Grinin, Leonid, Kondratieff Waves in the World System Perspective (October 15, 2012). Kondratieff Waves, Dimensions and Prospects at the Dawn of the 21st Century, ISSN: 2305-3461. Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2012, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2169274

Leonid Grinin (Contact Author)

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting ( email )

Rozhdestvenka 12
Moscow, 107031
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.sociostudies.org/ecbsf/

Volgograd Center for Social Research ( email )

Russia, 400079, Volgograd, Kirova street, 143
Volgograd, 400079
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.socionauki.ru/authors/grinin_l/

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