Analysis of a Terror Network from a System Dynamics Perspective

University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration, UZH Business Working Paper No. 322

38 Pages Posted: 7 Nov 2012

See all articles by Lukas Klaus Schoenenberger

Lukas Klaus Schoenenberger

Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School Singapore; University of Zurich - Department of Business Administration (IBW)

Andrea Schenker-Wicki

University of Basel

Mathias Beck

ETH Zurich

Date Written: November 5, 2012

Abstract

Terrorism is a complex problem and therefore simple solutions focusing just on one aspect are destined to fail. We have to capture terrorism in its entirety and system dynamics offers various tools to support us. We developed a semi-quantitative system dynamics approach aiming to characterize relationships between different variables and their impact on the system as a whole. The authors established a network to model terrorism consisting of 16 variables and performed different analysis to gain a better understanding of the mechanisms behind terrorism. We showed how to determine which variables are suited for intervention and described in detail their effects on the influence of the terrorist organization. The paper gives also an insight how to elicit elements that destabilize and ultimately break down the terror network. Because we clarify our approach using fictitious numbers, the relevance of this work is not so much in specific policy recommendations that it proposes as in the framework for reasoning that it provides.

Keywords: qualitative system dynamics, cross-impact matrix, cross-time matrix, intervention variables, path analysis, network stability

JEL Classification: Z00

Suggested Citation

Schoenenberger, Lukas Klaus and Schenker-Wicki, Andrea and Beck, Mathias, Analysis of a Terror Network from a System Dynamics Perspective (November 5, 2012). University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration, UZH Business Working Paper No. 322. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2171240 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2171240

Lukas Klaus Schoenenberger (Contact Author)

Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School Singapore ( email )

8 College Road
Singapore, 169857
Singapore

HOME PAGE: http://hssr.duke-nus.edu.sg/

University of Zurich - Department of Business Administration (IBW) ( email )

Hottingerstrasse 10
Plattenstrasse 14
Zurich, 8032
Switzerland

Andrea Schenker-Wicki

University of Basel ( email )

Petersplatz 1
Basel, CH-4003
Switzerland

Mathias Beck

ETH Zurich ( email )

Rämistrasse 101
ZUE F7
Zürich, 8092
Switzerland
+41 44 632 29 46 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://kof.ethz.ch

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