The Enhanced Risk Premium Factor Model & Expected Returns

16 Pages Posted: 8 Nov 2012

Date Written: October 31, 2012


The predictability of the equity risk premium is a central and controversial issue in finance. The Risk Premium Factor model is a recent and novel approach to forecasting the equity risk premium and the equity market’s level and P/E. This article aims to overcome the main limitation of, and therefore improve upon, this novel approach. The Enhanced Risk Premium Factor model proposed here to forecast the market’s return is clearly supported by the evidence. Furthermore, a model that articulates the same variables considered in the framework proposed, but that imposes no specific functional form to relate them, produces very highly correlated and unbiased forecasts of the market’s return.

Keywords: equity risk premium, risk premium factor, CAPE, stocks, bonds

JEL Classification: G11, G12

Suggested Citation

Estrada, Javier, The Enhanced Risk Premium Factor Model & Expected Returns (October 31, 2012). Available at SSRN: or

Javier Estrada (Contact Author)

IESE Business School ( email )

IESE Business School
Av. Pearson 21
Barcelona, 08034
+34 93 253 4200 (Phone)
+34 93 253 4343 (Fax)

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