A Real Time Evaluation of Employment Forecasts in Switzerland

KOF Working Papers No. 320

35 Pages Posted: 8 Nov 2012 Last revised: 14 Nov 2012

See all articles by Michael Graff

Michael Graff

ETH Zurich

Massimo Mannino

University of St. Gallen

Michael Siegenthaler

ETH Zürich - KOF Swiss Economic Institute

Date Written: November 7, 2012

Abstract

We evaluate nowcasts and one- to four-quarter-ahead forecasts of Swiss full time equivalent jobs from 1998q1–2011q4, comparing forecasts of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute and of the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs with the outcome of the reference series. Both forecasts are biased downward, and they do not capture the trend of the reference series well. In addition, we show that the KOF Employment Indicator as well as the Employment Indicator of the Federal Statistical Office are useful to predict the evolution full time equivalent jobs with a lead of about one quarter.

Keywords: forecasting employment, forecast evaluation, Swiss labor market

JEL Classification: C52, C53, E27

Suggested Citation

Graff, Michael and Mannino, Massimo and Siegenthaler, Michael, A Real Time Evaluation of Employment Forecasts in Switzerland (November 7, 2012). KOF Working Papers No. 320, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2172267 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2172267

Michael Graff (Contact Author)

ETH Zurich ( email )

KOF Swiss Economic Institute
Leonhardstrasse 21
CH-8092 Zurich, 8092
Switzerland

Massimo Mannino

University of St. Gallen ( email )

Langgasse 1
St. Gallen, 9008
Switzerland

Michael Siegenthaler

ETH Zürich - KOF Swiss Economic Institute ( email )

Zurich
Switzerland

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