Explaining Differences between the Expected and Actual Duration Until Return Migration: Economic Changes

14 Pages Posted: 9 Nov 2012

See all articles by Gerard J. van den Berg

Gerard J. van den Berg

VU University Amsterdam - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); IZA Institute of Labor Economics; Tinbergen Institute

Michèle A. Weynandt

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: November 1, 2012

Abstract

This paper explores the difference between intentions and realizations in return migration with the help of a duration model. Using the GSOEP the results lend support to the fact that people use simplifying heuristics when trying to forecast the future; their return intentions indicate bunching in heaps of 5 years. Along these lines we find that migrated individuals systematically underestimate the length of their stay in the receiving country. We find that the difference decreases the older one gets, but is larger the more disadvantaged one feels due to ones origin as an example. The robustness checks show that the results do not hinge on a single definition, or set of explaining variables. The consistency in the underestimation may have important policy and modeling implications.

Keywords: duration analysis, international migration, hedonic forecasting, utility misprediction

JEL Classification: C41, D84, F22

Suggested Citation

van den Berg, Gerard J. and Weynandt, Michèle A., Explaining Differences between the Expected and Actual Duration Until Return Migration: Economic Changes (November 1, 2012). SOEPpaper No. 497. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2172696 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2172696

Gerard J. Van den Berg (Contact Author)

VU University Amsterdam - Department of Economics ( email )

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Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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IZA Institute of Labor Economics

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Tinbergen Institute

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Rotterdam, 3062 PA
Netherlands

Michèle A. Weynandt

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

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