State Variables, Macroeconomic Activity and the Cross-Section of Individual Stocks
64 Pages Posted: 10 Nov 2012 Last revised: 9 Jun 2015
Date Written: October 20, 2014
I study whether risk premiums for exposure to state variables in the cross-section of individual stocks are consistent with how these variables forecast macroeconomic activity in the time-series. I find such time-series and cross-sectional consistency. This finding suggests that investors are ultimately concerned about business cycle risk and therefore require a premium for exposure to variables that contain systematic economic news. This finding challenges recent portfolio-level evidence showing that state variable risk premiums are inconsistent with hedging incentives in the ICAPM. Moreover, state variable risk premiums are not fully captured by the factors and characteristics of Fama and French (1992, 1993).
Keywords: State variables, Macroeconomic Risk, Linear Asset Pricing Models, Individual Stock Returns, Time-series and Cross-Sectional Consistency
JEL Classification: G11, G12, G13
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation