OPEC 'Fair Price' Pronouncements and the Market Price of Crude Oil
Energy Journal, Vol. 34, No. 4, 2013
Posted: 17 Nov 2012 Last revised: 6 Oct 2013
Date Written: November 15, 2012
OPEC producers, individually or collectively, often make statements regarding the “fair price” of crude oil. In some cases, the officials commenting are merely affirming the market price prevailing at the time. In many cases, however, we document that they explicitly disagree with contemporaneous oil futures prices. A natural question is whether these “fair price” pronouncements contain information not already reflected in the market price of crude oil. To find the answer, we collect “fair price” statements made from 2000 through 2010 by officials from OPEC or OPEC member countries. Visually, the “fair price” series looks like a sampling discretely drawn (with a lag) from the daily futures market price series. Formally, we use two primary methodologies to establish that “fair price” pronouncements have little influence on the market price of crude oil and supply little or no new news to oil futures market participants.
Keywords: Crude oil, OPEC, Fair price, Market price, Event study, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL)
JEL Classification: E31, Q4, G140
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation