Presidential Success and the World Economy

32 Pages Posted: 29 Nov 2012 Last revised: 18 Nov 2015

See all articles by Daniela Campello

Daniela Campello

GetĂșlio Vargas Foundation

Cesar Zucco

Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE)

Date Written: November 3, 2015

Abstract

Economic voting is a widely accepted regularity in the political science literature, yet most work on the subject either assumes that economic performance is a direct result of policymaking or, more recently, argues that voters can identify when this is not the case. Our paper challenges these claims by showing that, in a large subset of Latin American countries, both presidential popularity and prospects of reelection strongly depend on factors unambiguously exogenous to presidents' policy choices. These findings advance the literature on assignment of responsibility for economic performance, and pose important implications for democratic accountability.

Keywords: Economic Voting, Latin America, Elections

JEL Classification: P16

Suggested Citation

Campello, Daniela and Zucco, Cesar, Presidential Success and the World Economy (November 3, 2015). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2182187 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2182187

Daniela Campello

GetĂșlio Vargas Foundation ( email )

Praia de Botafogo 190
office 517
Rio de Janeiro, NJ Rio de Janeiro 22240070
United States
2137995809 (Phone)

Cesar Zucco (Contact Author)

Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE) ( email )

Praia de Botafogo 190
Rio de Janeiro, RJ
Brazil

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