2012 Fiscal Model Failure: A Problem of Measurement?

18 Pages Posted: 2 Dec 2012

Date Written: November 20, 2012

Abstract

The Fiscal Model forecast of the 2012 presidential election published in the October issue of PS: Political Science and Politics not only failed to predict that President Obama would win reelection handily, but missed his actual share of the two-party vote by about five percent points (46.9% v. 51.8%). An “audit” of the model appears to show that the failure was likely caused by faulty measurement of fiscal policy of presidents who, like Obama, were in the first term of a new party reign. Taking account of those cases improves model fit and generates an out-of-sample forecast for 2012 that is within one percent point of the actual.

Keywords: Fiscal Model, forecasting, 2012 presidential election

Suggested Citation

Cuzan, Alfred G., 2012 Fiscal Model Failure: A Problem of Measurement? (November 20, 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2183408 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2183408

Alfred G. Cuzan (Contact Author)

University of West Florida ( email )

11000 University Parkway
Pensacola, FL 32514-5750
United States

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