What Shapes Young Elite Athletes’ Perception of Chances in an Environment of Great Uncertainty?

44 Pages Posted: 5 Dec 2012

See all articles by Verena Jung

Verena Jung

EBS Universität für Wirtschaft und Recht - Institute for Sports, Business & Society

Sascha L. Schmidt

EBS Universität für Wirtschaft und Recht - Institute for Sports, Business & Society

Benno Torgler

Queensland University of Technology; CREMA; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

Date Written: November 1, 2012

Abstract

Unrealistic optimism is a commonly observed bias in the perception of chances. In this paper, we examine whether the bias is also present among young elite soccer players (10 to 23 years old) who receive regular objective feedback through external assessments. Utilizing a large unique data set of almost 1600 individuals allows us to explore the empirical validation of the ipsative theory of human behavior. In particular, we analyze how factors such as age or experience, education, peer group performance, and the level of integration into culture exert influence over young elite athletes’ perceived chance of becoming a professional player. Working with a homogeneous dataset of individuals possessing similar characteristics and professional goals allows us to control for and isolate (unobserved) factors that may shape perceptions.

Keywords: perception of chances, unrealistic optimism, ipsative possibility set, integration effects, soccer

JEL Classification: L83, D81, D03, J15

Suggested Citation

Jung, Verena and Schmidt, Sascha L. and Torgler, Benno, What Shapes Young Elite Athletes’ Perception of Chances in an Environment of Great Uncertainty? (November 1, 2012). EBS Business School Research Paper No. 12-09. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2184712 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2184712

Verena Jung

EBS Universität für Wirtschaft und Recht - Institute for Sports, Business & Society ( email )

Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 3
65189 Wiesbaden, Hessen 65189
Germany

Sascha L. Schmidt (Contact Author)

EBS Universität für Wirtschaft und Recht - Institute for Sports, Business & Society ( email )

Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 3
65189 Wiesbaden, Hessen 65189
Germany
0611 7102 2064 (Phone)

Benno Torgler

Queensland University of Technology ( email )

GPO Box 2434
2 George Street
Brisbane, Queensland 4001
Australia

CREMA

Gellertstrasse 18
Basel
Zurich, CH 8006
Switzerland

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

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