Firm Volatility in Granular Networks

47 Pages Posted: 7 Dec 2012 Last revised: 31 Aug 2017

Bernard Herskovic

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Anderson School of Management

Bryan T. Kelly

Yale SOM; AQR Capital Management, LLC; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Hanno N. Lustig

Stanford Graduate School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

New York University Stern School of Business, Department of Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: August 31, 2017

Abstract

Firm volatilities co-move strongly over time, and their common factor is the dispersion of the economy-wide firm size distribution. In the cross section, smaller firms and firms with a more concentrated customer base display higher volatility. Network effects are essential to explaining the joint evolution of the empirical firm size and firm volatility distributions. We propose and estimate a simple network model of firm volatility in which shocks to customers influence their suppliers. Larger suppliers have more customers and the strength of a customer-supplier link depends on the size of the customer. The model produces distributions of firm volatility, size, and customer concentration that are consistent with the data.

Keywords: Firm volatility, networks, firm size distribution, aggregate volatility, granularity

JEL Classification: E3, E20, G1, L14, L25

Suggested Citation

Herskovic, Bernard and Kelly, Bryan T. and Lustig, Hanno N. and Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, Firm Volatility in Granular Networks (August 31, 2017). Fama-Miller Working Paper; Fama-Miller Working Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2186197 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2186197

Bernard Herskovic

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Anderson School of Management ( email )

Los Angeles, CA 90095-1481
United States

HOME PAGE: http://bernardherskovic.com

Bryan T. Kelly (Contact Author)

Yale SOM ( email )

135 Prospect Street
P.O. Box 208200
New Haven, CT 06520-8200
United States

AQR Capital Management, LLC ( email )

Greenwich, CT
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Hanno N. Lustig

Stanford Graduate School of Business ( email )

Stanford GSB
655 Knight Way
Stanford, CA California 94305-6072
United States
3108716532 (Phone)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

New York University Stern School of Business, Department of Finance ( email )

44 West 4th Street
Suite 9-190
New York, NY 10012-1126
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom

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