Job Loss Fears and (Extremist) Party Identification: First Evidence from Panel Data

37 Pages Posted: 8 Dec 2012

See all articles by Ingo Geishecker

Ingo Geishecker

Georg-August-University Göttingen

Thomas Siedler

University of Hamburg - Faculty of Business, Economics, and Social Sciences; DIW Berlin; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); University of Essex

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 1, 2012

Abstract

There is a large body of literature analyzing the relationship between objective economic conditions and voting behavior, but there is very little evidence of how perceived economic insecurity impacts on political preferences. Using seventeen years of household panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we examine whether job loss fears impact on individuals' party identification. Consistent with the deprivation theory, we find strong and robust evidence that subjective job loss fears foster affinity for parties at the far right-wing of the political spectrum. The effects are broadly comparable in direction and magnitude with the ones from objective unemployment and being out of the labor force. However, our empirical estimates do not suggest that job loss fears result in people withdrawing their support from political parties altogether or increasingly identify with extremist left-wing parties.

Keywords: job insecurity, party identification, prospective voting, economic worries

JEL Classification: J01, J63, P16

Suggested Citation

Geishecker, Ingo and Siedler, Thomas, Job Loss Fears and (Extremist) Party Identification: First Evidence from Panel Data (October 1, 2012). SOEPpaper No. 511. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2186489 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2186489

Ingo Geishecker (Contact Author)

Georg-August-University Göttingen ( email )

Platz der Göttinger Sieben 3
Goettingen, 37073
Germany

Thomas Siedler

University of Hamburg - Faculty of Business, Economics, and Social Sciences ( email )

Von-Melle-Park 9
Hamburg, 20146
Germany

DIW Berlin ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

University of Essex ( email )

Wivenhoe Park
Colchester, CO4 3SQ
United Kingdom

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