Prospects for Energy Supply and Demand in the Southern Mediterranean: Scenarios for 2010–30

Abstract

The aim of this technical report is to quantify alternative energy demand and supply scenarios for ten southern and eastern Mediterranean countries up to 2030.

The report presents the model-based results of four alternative scenarios that are broadly in line with the MEDPRO scenario specifications on regional integration and cooperation with the EU. The report analyses the main implications of the scenarios in the following areas: final energy demand by sector (industry, households, services, agriculture and transport), the evolution of the power generation mix, the development of renewable energy sources and electricity exports to the EU, primary energy production and the balance of trade for hydrocarbons, energy-related CO2 emissions; and power generation costs.

Keywords: energy supply, energy demand, southern Mediterranean, EU, renewable energy, power generation costs