Short-Term Institutions, Analyst Recommendations, and Mispricing: The Role of Higher-Order Beliefs
62 Pages Posted: 19 Dec 2012 Last revised: 16 Jan 2021
Date Written: January 16, 2021
We document that stocks that have optimistic (pessimistic) consensus recommendations and are currently held by many short-term institutions exhibit large stock-return reversals: their large past outperformance (underperformance) is followed by large negative (positive) future alphas. The predictable return reversals originate from overreaction to past recommendation releases and the correction of these overreactions around future releases. Results are stronger when earnings news is released and at firms with higher fundamental uncertainty. Further, firms with more short-term institutions show stronger announcement returns and price drift after recommendation changes. Our results are consistent with models of higher-order beliefs where short-term institutions coordinate trading around public signals.
Keywords: Short-term Institutions; Analyst Recommendations; Mispricing; Higher-Order Beliefs
JEL Classification: G12, G14, M40
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation