Impact of Climate Change on the Indian Economy: Evidence from Foodgrain Yields

Centre for Development Economics, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics Working Paper No. 218

40 Pages Posted: 19 Dec 2012

See all articles by Shreekant Gupta

Shreekant Gupta

Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy; University of Delhi - Delhi School of Economics

Partha Sen

Centre for Development Economics

Suchita Srinivasan

ETH Zürich - CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich

Date Written: September 30, 2012

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of climate change on foodgrain yields in India, namely rice and millets. We estimate a crop-specific agricultural production function with exogenous climate variables, namely, precipitation and temperature and control for key inputs such as irrigation, fertilizer and labour. Our analysis is at the district level using a panel dataset for physical yield (output per hectare – gross cropped area) for the period 1966-99. Thus, we eschew crop simulation approaches that rely on experimental data. We do not also estimate reduced form relationships between economic variables such as profits or the monetary value of yield and weather measures. Consistent with other studies at the district and state level we find significant impacts of climate change (temperature and precipitation) on Indian agriculture. The implication of our results for inter-state disparities and corrective measures is elaborated.

Keywords: climate change, agricultural impacts, developing countries, India

JEL Classification: O13, Q54, R11

Suggested Citation

Gupta, Shreekant and Gupta, Shreekant and Sen, Partha and Srinivasan, Suchita, Impact of Climate Change on the Indian Economy: Evidence from Foodgrain Yields (September 30, 2012). Centre for Development Economics, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics Working Paper No. 218, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2191010 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2191010

Shreekant Gupta (Contact Author)

Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy ( email )

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University of Delhi - Delhi School of Economics ( email )

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Partha Sen

Centre for Development Economics ( email )

Delhi School of Economics
Delhi, 110007
India

Suchita Srinivasan

ETH Zürich - CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich ( email )

Zürichbergstrasse 18
Zurich, 8092
Switzerland

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