Learning from Experience in the Stock Market

36 Pages Posted: 18 Dec 2012

See all articles by Anton Nakov

Anton Nakov

CEPR; European Central Bank (ECB)

Galo Nuño

Banco de España

Multiple version iconThere are 4 versions of this paper

Date Written: May 22, 2012

Abstract

We study the dynamics of a Lucas-tree model with finitely lived individuals who "learn from experience." Individuals update expectations by Bayesian learning based on observations from their own lifetimes. In this model, the stock price exhibits stochastic fluctuations around the rational expectations equilibrium. This heterogeneous-agents economy can be approximated by a representative-agent model with constant-gain learning, where the gain parameter is related to the survival rate.

Keywords: learning from experience, OLG, asset pricing, bubbles, heterogeneous agents

JEL Classification: G12, D83, D84

Suggested Citation

Nakov, Anton A. and Nuno, Galo, Learning from Experience in the Stock Market (May 22, 2012). FEDS Working Paper No. 2012-41. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2191217 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2191217

Anton A. Nakov (Contact Author)

CEPR ( email )

London
United Kingdom

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Galo Nuno

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

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