Going Electric: Expert Survey on the Future of Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles

34 Pages Posted: 21 Dec 2012

See all articles by Michela Catenacci

Michela Catenacci

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Elena Verdolini

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

Valentina Bosetti

Bocconi University; CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

Giulia Fiorese

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei; Polytechnic University of Milan - Dipartimento di Elettronica e Informazione

Nadia Ameli

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Date Written: December 21, 2012

Abstract

The paper describes the results of a survey, carried out with leading EU experts, on the capacity of both fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles to reach commercial success in the next twenty years. The success of electric transport is hampered by a combination of low range, scarce efficiency and high costs of batteries. Costs are expected to decrease in response to increasing sales volume and technical improvements, and advances would result from adequate investments in research, development and demonstration (RD&D). Experts’ judgements are collected to shed light on the inherently uncertain relationship between RD&D efforts and consequent technical progress, and to assess the complex dynamics that will hinder or support the widespread diffusion of electric vehicles. The analysis of the experts’ data results in a number of important policy recommendations to guide future RD&D choices and target commitments both for the EU and its member states.

Keywords: Expert Elicitation, Battery Technologies, Electric Vehicles

JEL Classification: Q5, Q55

Suggested Citation

Catenacci, Michela and Verdolini, Elena and Bosetti, Valentina and Fiorese, Giulia and Ameli, Nadia, Going Electric: Expert Survey on the Future of Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles (December 21, 2012). FEEM Working Paper No. 93.2012, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2192529 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2192529

Michela Catenacci (Contact Author)

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy

Elena Verdolini

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change ( email )

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy

Valentina Bosetti

Bocconi University

Via Gobbi 5
Milan, 20136
Italy

CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Giulia Fiorese

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei ( email )

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy

Polytechnic University of Milan - Dipartimento di Elettronica e Informazione ( email )

Via Ponzio 34/5
Milano, 20133
Italy

Nadia Ameli

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy

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