Do Fewer People Mean Fewer Cars? – Population Decline and Car Ownership in Germany

26 Pages Posted: 15 Jan 2013

See all articles by Nolan Ritter

Nolan Ritter

Rhine-Westphalia Institute for Economic Research (RWI-Essen)

Colin Vance

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI)

Date Written: November 1, 2012

Abstract

Drawing on household data from Germany, this study econometrically analyzes the determinants of automobile ownership, focusing specifically on the extent to which decreases in family size translate into fewer cars at the national level. Beyond identifying several variables over which policy makers have direct leverage, including the price for fuel, the supply of public transit, and land use features, the analysis uses the estimated coefficients from a multinomial logit model to simulate car ownership rates under alternative scenarios pertaining to demographic change and other socioeconomic variables. Our baseline scenario predicts continued increases in the number of cars despite decreases in population, a trend that could be partially off set by substantial increases in fuel prices.

Keywords: Car ownership, demographic change, Germany, multinomial logit, simulation

JEL Classification: C25, D10, R41

Suggested Citation

Ritter, Nolan and Vance, Colin, Do Fewer People Mean Fewer Cars? – Population Decline and Car Ownership in Germany (November 1, 2012). Ruhr Economic Paper No. 385. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2200408 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2200408

Nolan Ritter (Contact Author)

Rhine-Westphalia Institute for Economic Research (RWI-Essen) ( email )

Hohenzollernstr. 1-3
Essen, 45128
Germany

Colin Vance

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) ( email )

Hohenzollernstr. 1-3
Essen, 45128
Germany
0049-201-8149-237 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.rwi-essen.de

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