Transitions in Tunisia and Egypt - What Does the Future Hold?
21 Pages Posted: 16 Jan 2013 Last revised: 17 Jan 2013
Date Written: May 4, 2012
In January 2011 protesters in Tunisia forced out long-time dictator Ben Ali. Egypt’s Mubarak was soon to follow. In this paper I outline the transitions of both states - looking specifically at elites, institutions, and civil society. I discuss democratization literature in the context of both states and their likely futures. I conclude that the most significant difference between Tunisia and Egypt are elites - and that such a difference is sufficient to present differing predictions. Tunisia has a better chance of democratization than Egypt because her elites have formed consensus around both democracy and secular governance, whereas Egypt’s have yet to do so and show little promise of such consensus in the near future.
Keywords: Tunisia, Egypt, transitions, North Africa, democratization
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