How Do Judgmental Overconfidence and Overoptimism Shape Innovative Activity?
44 Pages Posted: 17 Jan 2013 Last revised: 24 Mar 2014
Date Written: November 7, 2013
Recent field evidence suggests a positive link between overconfidence and innovative activities. In this paper we argue that the connection between overconfidence and innovation is more complex than the previous literature suggests. In particular, we show theoretically and experimentally that different forms of overconfidence may have opposing effects on innovative activity. While overoptimism is positively associated with innovation, judgmental overconfidence is negatively linked to innovation. Our results indicate that future research is well advised to take into account that the relationship between innovation and overconfidence may crucially depend on what type of overconfidence is most prevalent in a particular context.
Keywords: Innovation, Entrepreneurship, Overconfidence, Experiment
JEL Classification: C92, D83, D23
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation