Do Aggregate Company Outlooks have Macroeconomic Content?

24 Pages Posted: 21 Jan 2013

See all articles by Sebastian Orbe

Sebastian Orbe

University of Cologne - Department of Corporate Finance

Oliver Pucker

University of Cologne

Date Written: January 21, 2013

Abstract

Following the notion that the economy as a whole is the sum of all its individual parts we aggregate individual company information to analyze their macroeconomic content. We find that combined company outlooks predict future macroeconomic developments up to about one year. As a proxy for company outlooks we use stock market analyst recommendations. We show that the information contained in aggregate recommendations is unrelated to the information content of well-established macroeconomic predictors and complements it well.

Keywords: analysts, macroeconomic development, forecasting

JEL Classification: E17, E44, G14, G17, G24, O11, O16

Suggested Citation

Orbe, Sebastian and Pucker, Oliver, Do Aggregate Company Outlooks have Macroeconomic Content? (January 21, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2204321 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2204321

Sebastian Orbe

University of Cologne - Department of Corporate Finance ( email )

Albertus-Magnus-Platz
Cologne, 50923
Germany

Oliver Pucker (Contact Author)

University of Cologne ( email )

Albertus-Magnus-Platz
Cologne, 50923
Germany

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