Do Aggregate Company Outlooks have Macroeconomic Content?
24 Pages Posted: 21 Jan 2013
Date Written: January 21, 2013
Following the notion that the economy as a whole is the sum of all its individual parts we aggregate individual company information to analyze their macroeconomic content. We find that combined company outlooks predict future macroeconomic developments up to about one year. As a proxy for company outlooks we use stock market analyst recommendations. We show that the information contained in aggregate recommendations is unrelated to the information content of well-established macroeconomic predictors and complements it well.
Keywords: analysts, macroeconomic development, forecasting
JEL Classification: E17, E44, G14, G17, G24, O11, O16
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation