Modeling Income in the Near Term: Projections of Retirement Income through 2020 for the 1931-60 Birth Cohorts
The Urban Institute, September 1999
331 Pages Posted: 25 Jan 2013
Date Written: September 1999
The Division of Policy Evaluation (DPE) at the Social Security Administration (SSA) is developing a model to evaluate the distributional effects of Social Security policy changes. The model is referred to as Modeling Income in the Near Term, or MINT, because the project sought to develop within a short time frame a model that could assess the effects of reforms through the early retirement years of the early post-war birth cohorts. This technical report describes the results of development work on the MINT model performed under contract to SSA by the Urban Institute (UI) and the Brookings Institution (Brookings). The report discusses the methods used to project future incomes, presents regression results for equations explaining the path of different sources of income, and displays tables that summarize the results of projections. It discusses how income in retirement is projected to change for younger cohorts, relative to birth cohorts retiring in the 1990s, and discusses the sources of projected changes in the distribution of income of retirees.
The base data sets used in the model are 1990-93 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), matched to Social Security Earnings Records (SER) and Master Beneficiary Records (MBR). The SERs give earnings histories for the years 1951-1996. The project uses data on the matched files for individuals in the 1931-60 birth cohorts to project their incomes at ages 62 and 67 and post-retirement incomes to the year 2020. As part of the contract, UI and Brookings have supplied the SSA with SAS export files and documentation of all the projections and of the programs that create the projections. This report summarizes the research results that are contained in the data files.
Keywords: Retirement and Older Americans
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