Modeling Income in the Near Term: Projections of Retirement Income through 2020 for the 1931-60 Birth Cohorts

The Urban Institute, September 1999

331 Pages Posted: 25 Jan 2013

See all articles by Eric J. Toder

Eric J. Toder

Urban Institute

Cori E. Uccello

American Academy of Actuaries

John O'Hare

The Urban Institute

Melissa Favreault

The Urban Institute

Caroline E. Ratcliffe

The Urban Institute - Labor and Social Policy Center

Karen E. Smith

Urban Institute

Gary Burtless

Brookings Institution; Boston College - Retirement Research Center

Barry Bosworth

Brookings Institution - Economic Studies Program

Date Written: September 1999

Abstract

The Division of Policy Evaluation (DPE) at the Social Security Administration (SSA) is developing a model to evaluate the distributional effects of Social Security policy changes. The model is referred to as Modeling Income in the Near Term, or MINT, because the project sought to develop within a short time frame a model that could assess the effects of reforms through the early retirement years of the early post-war birth cohorts. This technical report describes the results of development work on the MINT model performed under contract to SSA by the Urban Institute (UI) and the Brookings Institution (Brookings). The report discusses the methods used to project future incomes, presents regression results for equations explaining the path of different sources of income, and displays tables that summarize the results of projections. It discusses how income in retirement is projected to change for younger cohorts, relative to birth cohorts retiring in the 1990s, and discusses the sources of projected changes in the distribution of income of retirees.

The base data sets used in the model are 1990-93 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), matched to Social Security Earnings Records (SER) and Master Beneficiary Records (MBR). The SERs give earnings histories for the years 1951-1996. The project uses data on the matched files for individuals in the 1931-60 birth cohorts to project their incomes at ages 62 and 67 and post-retirement incomes to the year 2020. As part of the contract, UI and Brookings have supplied the SSA with SAS export files and documentation of all the projections and of the programs that create the projections. This report summarizes the research results that are contained in the data files.

Keywords: Retirement and Older Americans

Suggested Citation

Toder, Eric J. and Uccello, Cori E. and O'Hare, John and Favreault, Melissa and Ratcliffe, Caroline E. and Smith, Karen E. and Burtless, Gary T and Bosworth, Barry, Modeling Income in the Near Term: Projections of Retirement Income through 2020 for the 1931-60 Birth Cohorts (September 1999). The Urban Institute, September 1999. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2206439 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2206439

Eric J. Toder

Urban Institute ( email )

Urban Institute
2100 M Street NW
Washington, DC 20037
United States
2022615577 (Phone)

Cori E. Uccello

American Academy of Actuaries ( email )

1850 M Street, NW
Suite 300
Washington, DC 20036
United States

John O'Hare

The Urban Institute

2100 M Street, NW
Washington, DC 20037
United States

Melissa Favreault

The Urban Institute ( email )

2100 M Street, NW
Washington, DC 20037
United States
(202) 261-5854 (Phone)

Caroline E. Ratcliffe (Contact Author)

The Urban Institute - Labor and Social Policy Center ( email )

2100 M Street, NW
Washington, DC 20037
United States
202-261-5548 (Phone)
202-463-8522 (Fax)

Karen E. Smith

Urban Institute ( email )

2100 M Street, NW
Washington, DC 20037
United States

Gary T Burtless

Brookings Institution ( email )

1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW
Economic Studies Program
Washington, DC 20036-2188
United States
202-797-6000 (Phone)
202-797-6181 (Fax)

Boston College - Retirement Research Center ( email )

Fulton Hall 550
Chestnut Hill, MA 02467
United States

Barry Bosworth

Brookings Institution - Economic Studies Program ( email )

1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States
202-797-6000 (Phone)
202-797-6181 (Fax)

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