Asset Pricing with Uncertain Betas: A Long-Term Perspective

34 Pages Posted: 30 Jan 2013

See all articles by Christian Gollier

Christian Gollier

University of Toulouse 1 - Industrial Economic Institute (IDEI); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Date Written: January 29, 2013

Abstract

How should one evaluate investment projects whose CCAPM betas are uncertain? This question is particularly crucial for projects yielding long-lasting impacts on the economy, as is the case for example for many green investments. We define the notion of a certainty equivalent beta. We show that its term structure is not constant and that, for short maturities, it equals the expected beta. If the expected beta is larger than a threshold (which is negative and large in absolute value in all realistic calibrations), the term structure of the certainty equivalent beta is increasing and tends to its largest plausible value. If current beliefs concerning the asset’s beta are represented by a normal distribution, the certainty equivalent beta becomes infinite for finite maturities.

Keywords: asset prices, term structure, risk premium, certainty equivalent beta

JEL Classification: G110, G120, E430, Q540

Suggested Citation

Gollier, Christian, Asset Pricing with Uncertain Betas: A Long-Term Perspective (January 29, 2013). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 4072. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2208429

Christian Gollier (Contact Author)

University of Toulouse 1 - Industrial Economic Institute (IDEI) ( email )

Manufacture des Tabacs
21 Allee de Brienne bat. F
Toulouse Cedex, F-31000
France
+33 61 12 86 30 (Phone)
+33 61 12 86 37 (Fax)

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

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