Download this Paper Open PDF in Browser

Analyzing Moment-to-Moment Data Using a Bayesian Functional Linear Model: Application to TV Show Pilot Testing

Marketing Science, 33 (2), 222-240, January 2014

51 Pages Posted: 31 Jan 2013 Last revised: 20 Apr 2015

Sam K. Hui

New York University (NYU) - Department of Marketing

Tom Meyvis

New York University (NYU) - Department of Marketing

Henry Assael

New York University (NYU) - Department of Marketing

Date Written: 2014

Abstract

Researchers often collect continuous consumer feedback (“moment-to-moment,” or MTM, data) to understand how consumers respond during a variety of experiences (ranging from viewing a TV show to undergoing a colonoscopy). Analyzing how MTM judgments are integrated into overall evaluations allows researchers to determine how the structure of an experience influences consumers’ post-experience satisfaction. However, this analysis is challenging because of the functional nature of MTM data. As such, previous research has typically been limited to identifying the influence of heuristics, such as relying on average intensity, peak, and ending.

We develop a Bayesian functional linear model to study how the different “moments” in the MTM data contribute to the overall judgment. Our approach incorporates a (temporally) weighted average of MTM data as well as specific “patterns” such as peak and trough, thus nesting previous approaches such as the “peak-end” rule as special cases. We then apply our methodology to analyze data on TV show pilots collected by CBS. Our results reveal several interesting empirical findings. First, the last quintile of a TV show is weighted around four times as much as each of the first four quintiles. Second, patterns such as peak and trough do not play substantial roles in driving overall evaluations for TV shows. Finally, the last quintile is even more important for procedural dramas than for serial dramas. We discuss the managerial implications of our results and other potential applications of our general methodology.

Keywords: TV shows, moment to moment data, consumer enjoyment

JEL Classification: C11, M3

Suggested Citation

Hui, Sam K. and Meyvis, Tom and Assael, Henry, Analyzing Moment-to-Moment Data Using a Bayesian Functional Linear Model: Application to TV Show Pilot Testing (2014). Marketing Science, 33 (2), 222-240, January 2014. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2208801 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2208801

Sam K. Hui (Contact Author)

New York University (NYU) - Department of Marketing ( email )

Henry Kaufman Ctr
44 W 4 St.
New York, NY
United States

Tom Meyvis

New York University (NYU) - Department of Marketing ( email )

Henry Kaufman Ctr
44 W 4 St.
New York, NY
United States

Henry Assael

New York University (NYU) - Department of Marketing ( email )

Henry Kaufman Ctr
44 W 4 St.
New York, NY
United States

Paper statistics

Downloads
153
Rank
161,914
Abstract Views
889