Forecasting the Fiber Penetration According to the Copper Access Regulation

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of the copper access regulation on broadband adoption in each technology (xDSL on copper infrastructure, FTTx on fiber infrastructure and cable modem). We modelize adoption with a logistic function. Using a 15 European countries dataset we find a negative impact of copper access regulation on fiber and cable modem adoption. The copper access regulation is measured by two variables: The copper access charge and the copper wholesale access share, i.e. the ratio of copper wholesale access provided by the incumbent to the alternative operators on the total number of copper access). The model allows us to forescast the rate of penetration of broadband access according to the technology (copper xDSL, fiber, FTTx and cable modem) until 2020. An increase of copper access charge or a decrease of copper wholesale access share could help to achieve the objectives of the digital agenda.

Keywords: Broadband access, FTTx, technological competition, adoption forecasting, copper access regulation

JEL Classification: C53, H54, L51, L96