Estimating Transaction-Based Price Indices of Local Commercial Real Estate Markets Using Pubic Assessment Data

Abstract

This study examines the feasibility of constructing reliable commercial property price indices using property tax records. We employ the Clapp and Giacotto (1992) assessed-value method to estimate price indices for commercial properties in Florida. The estimated Florida commercial property price index is compared to the Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) and to the transaction-based index (TBI) produced at MIT. Our results are promising, suggesting that this widely-available data source can be used to produce commercial property price indices for a variety of precise market locations and specific investor segments.

A secondary but interesting objective of this paper is to use our rich and comprehensive database to examine the price performance of two specific subsets of properties in more detail. First, we narrow our range to focus on just the office sector for Florida. We compare price movements providing support to both methods. Second, we contrast the price performance of higher-and lower-valued properties and reject the hypothesis that their periodic price index levels are equal. The mean price changes of Florida commercial properties assessed at $2.5 million and above are observed to be slightly higher than for properties assessed below $2.5 million, although not statistically different. In particular, higher-valued properties had higher mean price changes rleative to lower-valued properties during periods of economic expansion. This economic difference represents an importnat contribution toward beginning to understand the relative peformance of smaller and investment-grade commercial properties.

Keywords: commercial property prices, repeat-sales indices, assessed-value indices