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The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows

56 Pages Posted: 2 Feb 2013  

Simone Bertoli

University of Auvergne; CERDI

Herbert Brücker

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga

Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; Instituto de Análisis Económic (IAE) Barcelona

Abstract

The analysis of how the economic crisis in Europe has reshaped migration flows faces two challenges: (i) the confounding influence of correlated changes in the attractiveness of alternative destinations, and (ii) the role of rapidly changing expectations about the evolution of the economic conditions in various countries. This paper addresses the first challenge by controlling for multilateral resistance to migration, and the second one by incorporating 10-year bond yields as an explanatory variable in a study of European bilateral migration flows to Germany between 2006 and 2012. We show that, while expectations and current economic conditions at origin are significant determinants of migration, diversion effects account for 78 percent of the observed increase in German gross migration inflows.

Keywords: international migration, multiple destinations, diversion, expectations

JEL Classification: F22, O15, J61

Suggested Citation

Bertoli, Simone and Brücker, Herbert and Moraga, Jesús Fernández-Huertas, The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows. IZA Discussion Paper No. 7170. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2210830

Simone Bertoli (Contact Author)

University of Auvergne ( email )

49 Boulevard François Mitterrand
Clermont-Ferrand, Auvergne 63000
France

CERDI ( email )

65 Boulevard Francois Mitterrand
63000 Clermont-Ferrand Cedex 1
France

Herbert Brücker

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga

Universidad Carlos III de Madrid ( email )

CL. de Madrid 126
Madrid, Madrid 28903
Spain

Instituto de Análisis Económic (IAE) Barcelona

Barcelona, Bellaterra 08193
Spain

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