The Dynamics of Cyber Conflict between Rival Antagonists, 2001-2011

27 Pages Posted: 11 Feb 2013

See all articles by Brandon G. Valeriano

Brandon G. Valeriano

University of Glasgow - Department of Politics

Ryan Maness

University of Illinois at Chicago - Department of Political Science

Date Written: February 9, 2013

Abstract

Much discussion of the concept of cyber conflict and the changing dynamic of future security interactions is founded upon the study of what could be, conjured through spectacular flights of the imagination. The goal of this research is to exhaustively collect information on all cyber interactions between rival states in the last decade so that we can delineate the patterns of cyber conflict as reflected by evidence. Our theory of cyber conflict is that restraint and regionalism should be expected, counter-intuitive to conventional wisdom. We find here that the actual magnitude and pace of cyber disputes among rivals does not match with popular perception; only 20 of 126 active rivals engaged in cyber conflict and, the interactions uncovered are limited in terms of magnitude and frequency. The coming era of cyber conflict should continue to exhibit these patterns despite fears mentioned in the discourse.

Keywords: cyber, cyberwar, cybersecurity, rivalry

Suggested Citation

Valeriano, Brandon G. and Maness, Ryan, The Dynamics of Cyber Conflict between Rival Antagonists, 2001-2011 (February 9, 2013). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2214332 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2214332

Brandon G. Valeriano (Contact Author)

University of Glasgow - Department of Politics ( email )

Glasgow, Scotland
United Kingdom

Ryan Maness

University of Illinois at Chicago - Department of Political Science ( email )

University of Illinois at Chicago
1007 W Harrison St M/C 276
Chicago, IL 60607-7137
United States

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