The Dynamics of Cyber Conflict between Rival Antagonists, 2001-2011
27 Pages Posted: 11 Feb 2013
Date Written: February 9, 2013
Much discussion of the concept of cyber conflict and the changing dynamic of future security interactions is founded upon the study of what could be, conjured through spectacular flights of the imagination. The goal of this research is to exhaustively collect information on all cyber interactions between rival states in the last decade so that we can delineate the patterns of cyber conflict as reflected by evidence. Our theory of cyber conflict is that restraint and regionalism should be expected, counter-intuitive to conventional wisdom. We find here that the actual magnitude and pace of cyber disputes among rivals does not match with popular perception; only 20 of 126 active rivals engaged in cyber conflict and, the interactions uncovered are limited in terms of magnitude and frequency. The coming era of cyber conflict should continue to exhibit these patterns despite fears mentioned in the discourse.
Keywords: cyber, cyberwar, cybersecurity, rivalry
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation