Time-to-Plan Lags for Commercial Construction Projects

AEI Economic Policy Working Paper No. 2012-06

49 Pages Posted: 11 Feb 2013

See all articles by Jonathan N. Millar

Jonathan N. Millar

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Stephen D. Oliner

American Enterprise Institute

Daniel E. Sichel

Wellesley College; NBER

Multiple version iconThere are 4 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 20, 2012

Abstract

We use a large project-level dataset to estimate the length of the planning period for commercial construction projects in the United States. We find that these time-to-plan lags are long, averaging about 17 months when we aggregate the projects without regard to size and more than 28 months when we weight the projects by their construction cost. The full distribution of time-to-plan lags is very wide, and we relate this variation to the characteristics of the project and its location. In addition, we show that time-to-plan lags lengthened by 3 to 4 months, on average, over our sample period (1999 to 2010). Regulatory factors are associated with variations in planning lags across locations, and we present anecdotal evidence that links at least some of the lengthening over time to heightened regulatory scrutiny.

Suggested Citation

Millar, Jonathan N. and Oliner, Stephen D. and Sichel, Daniel E., Time-to-Plan Lags for Commercial Construction Projects (December 20, 2012). AEI Economic Policy Working Paper No. 2012-06, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2215037 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2215037

Jonathan N. Millar (Contact Author)

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

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Stephen D. Oliner

American Enterprise Institute ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://www.aei.org/scholar/stephen-d-oliner/

Daniel E. Sichel

Wellesley College ( email )

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NBER ( email )

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