45 Pages Posted: 22 Feb 2013
Date Written: December 14, 2012
This paper models and explains the dynamics of market betas for 30 US industry portfolios between 1970 and 2009. We use DCC-MIDAS and kernel regression techniques as alternatives to the standard ex-post measures. We find betas to exhibit substantial persistence, time variation, ranking variability, and heterogeneity in their business cycle exposure. While we find only a limited amount of structural breaks in the betas of individual industries, we do identify a common structural break in March 1998. We propose two practical applications to understand the economic significance of these results. We find the cross-sectional dispersion in industry betas to be countercyclical and negatively related to future market returns. We also find DCC-MIDAS betas to outperform other beta measures in terms of limiting the downside risk and ex-post market exposure of a market-neutral minimum-variance strategy.
Keywords: industry betas, component models, kernel, DCC-MIDAS, dispersion in betas, stock return predictability, minimum variance strategies
JEL Classification: C33, E32, G12
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
By Tony Cooper