The Settlement of the United States, 1800 to 2000: The Long Transition Towards Gibrat's Law

Abstract

This paper studies the long run development of U.S. counties and metro areas from 1800 to 2000. In earlier periods smaller counties converge whereas larger counties diverge. Over time, due to changes in the age composition of locations and net congestion, convergence dissipates and divergence weakens. Gibrat's law emerges gradually without fully attaining it. Our findings suggest that orthogonal growth is a consequence of reaching a steady state population distribution, rather than an explanation of that distribution. A simple one-sector model, with entry of new locations, a growth friction, and decreasing net congestion closely matches these and related dynamics.

Keywords: Gibrat's law, growth across space, long-term development, settlement of US, spatial distribution of population

JEL Classification: N91, N92, O18, R11, R12