Human Development Dynamics: An Agent Based Simulation of Macro Social Systems and Individual Heterogeneous Evolutionary Games
14 Pages Posted: 17 Jun 2013
Date Written: 2012
Combining a system dynamic and agent based modeling approach, we formalize a simulation framework of the Human Development (HD) perspective. First, we build on Abdollahian et al. (2012) system dynamic asymmetric, coupled nonlinear differential equations that capture the core logic of HD theory, empirically validated from World Values Survey (WVS) data. Second, we fuse these endogenous individual attribute HD changes with non-cooperative game theory in an agent based framework to simulate the interactive political-cultural effects of individual intra-societal transactions. We explore the model's behavioral dynamics via simulation methods to identify paths and pitfalls towards economic development, cultural plasticity, social change and revolutionary political behavior. Our results indicate that development and state stability is strongly nonlinear and path dependent: economic progress is a necessary condition for successful secularization and expressive political behavior, which are antecedents for lasting democratic institutions. Policies and institutional arrangements must be tailored to, not outpace, a nation's level of economic progress to create demand for a secular and expressive political marketplace where democratic institutions can sustain and thrive. Different combinations and magnitudes of economic, cultural, social and political crisis and shocks produce dissimilar revolutionary behavior with either persistent or transitory positive and negative social externalities.
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