Time-Series Momentum versus Moving Average Trading Rules

Marshall, Ben R.; Nguyen, Nhut H.; Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2225551

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Time-Series Momentum versus Moving Average Trading Rules

45 Pages Posted: 27 Feb 2013 Last revised: 26 Feb 2015

See all articles by Ben R. Marshall

Ben R. Marshall

Massey University - School of Economics and Finance

Nuttawat Visaltanachoti

Massey University - Department of Economics and Finance

Date Written: December 22, 2014

Abstract

Time-series momentum (TSMOM) and moving average (MA) trading rules are closely related; however there are important differences. TSMOM signals occur at points that coincide with a MA direction change, whereas MA buy (sell) signals only require price to move above (below) a MA. Our empirical results show MA rules frequently give earlier signals leading to meaningful return gains. Both rules perform best outside of large stock series which may explain the puzzle of their popularity with investors yet lack of supportive evidence in academic studies.

Keywords: G11, G12

JEL Classification: Technical analysis, time-series momentum, moving average, return predictability

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Marshall, Ben R. and Nguyen, Nhut H. and Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, Time-Series Momentum versus Moving Average Trading Rules (December 22, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2225551 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2225551