GARCH Models for Daily Stock Returns: Impact of Estimation Frequency on Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Forecasts

Posted: 27 Feb 2013 Last revised: 11 Mar 2014

See all articles by David Ardia

David Ardia

HEC Montreal - Department of Decision Sciences

Lennart F. Hoogerheide

VU University Amsterdam

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: March 1, 2013

Abstract

We analyze the impact of the estimation frequency - updating parameter estimates on a daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly basis - for commonly used GARCH models in a large-scale study, using more than twelve years (2000-2012) of daily returns for constituents of the S&P 500 index. We assess the implication for one-day ahead 95% and 99% Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts with the test for correct conditional coverage of Christoffersen (1998) and for Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasts with the block-bootstrap test of ES violations of Jalal and Rockinger (2008). Using the false discovery rate methodology of Storey (2002) to estimate the percentage of stocks for which the model yields correct VaR and ES forecasts, we conclude that there is no difference in performance between updating the parameter estimates of the GARCH equation at a daily or weekly frequency, whereas monthly or even quarterly updates are only marginally outperformed.

Keywords: GARCH, Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, equity, frequency, estimation, false discovery rate

JEL Classification: C22, C52

Suggested Citation

Ardia, David and Hoogerheide, Lennart F., GARCH Models for Daily Stock Returns: Impact of Estimation Frequency on Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Forecasts (March 1, 2013). Economics Letters, Vol. 123, Issue 2, pp.187-190, May 2014, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2225585 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2225585

David Ardia (Contact Author)

HEC Montreal - Department of Decision Sciences ( email )

3000 Côte-Sainte-Catherine Road
Montreal, QC H2S1L4
Canada

Lennart F. Hoogerheide

VU University Amsterdam ( email )

De Boelelaan 1105
Amsterdam, ND North Holland 1081 HV
Netherlands

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