Mathematical Model for HIV and CD4 Cells Dynamics in Vivo

22 Pages Posted: 28 Feb 2013 Last revised: 16 Jan 2016

Date Written: February 27, 2013


Mathematical models are used to provide insights into the mechanisms and dynamics of the progression of viral infection in vivo. Untangling the dynamics between HIV and CD4 cellular populations and molecular interactions can be used to investigate the effective points of interventions in the HIV life cycle. With that in mind, we develop and analyze a stochastic model for In-Host HIV dynamics that includes combined therapeutic treatment and intracellular delay between the infection of a cell and the emission of viral particles. The unique feature is that both therapy and the intracellular delay are incorporated into the model. We show the usefulness of our stochastic approach towards modeling combined HIV treatment by obtaining probability generating function, the moment structures of the healthy CD4 cell, and the virus particles at any time t and the probability of virus clearance. Our analysis show that, when it is assumed that the drug is not completely effective, as is the case of HIV in vivo, the predicted rate of decline in plasma HIV virus concentration depends on three factors: the initial viral load before therapeutic intervention, the efficacy of therapy and the length of the intracellular delay.

Keywords: Intracellular delay, Therapeutic intervention, CD4 T-cells, HIV dynamics, Stochastic model

Suggested Citation

Mbogo, Rachel, Mathematical Model for HIV and CD4 Cells Dynamics in Vivo (February 27, 2013). Available at SSRN: or

Rachel Mbogo (Contact Author)

Strathmore University ( email )

P.O. Box 59857
Nairobi, 00200

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